
The UN Security Council will hold its first formal talks on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in New York this week, with the U.K. The consensus forecast sees it falling to -4.3 vs. On Friday, SLB ( SLB) (formerly Schlumberger) said it would halt all shipments of products and technology into Russia "in response to the continued expansion of international sanctions."Īt 8:30 AM ET, the July print for the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released. Russian Urals crude oil prices exceeded the G-7 oil price cap this week for the first time, with oil prices across the board rising as Saudi production cuts begin to take hold. The grain pact allowed the export of commercial food and fertilizer supplies, including ammonia, from three Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.
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Russia announced it suspended a humanitarian corridor to deliver key Ukrainian grains to global markets, an agreement set to expire later today. The June figure was the softest growth in retail trade so far this year and raises concerns as China’s re-opening boom fades. China's retail sales increased by 3.1% YoY in June, slowing sharply from the 12.7% surge in May and 18.4% in May, while falling short of the 3.2% consensus forecast. China's industrial production rose 4.4% YoY in June, accelerating from May’s 3.5% gain and beating forecasts of 2.7%, driven by a faster rise in manufacturing activity. The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% YoY in 2Q 2023, faster than 4.5% in 1Q 2023 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. This has led Citibank ( C), Morgan Stanley ( MS), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), and others to trim their growth forecasts for China. China’s Communist Party’s Politburo will hold a meeting later this month that will decide economic policies for the rest of the year however, the expectation is stimulus measures will likely be limited in scale. One potential area of concern is disappointing economic data out of China, showing the economy lost momentum in 2Q 2023 as the post-covid re-opening boom faded. To break through that resistance level, investors will need to see indications for dramatically faster earnings growth in 2H 2023 or a softening in inflation-fighting comments from Fed officials. If the answer appears to be “yes,” market bulls are likely to drive stocks higher toward the S&P 500’s technical resistance of 4,525-4,550. One question they will be attempting to answer is whether the S&P 500 basket of companies can deliver faster than expected EPS growth in 2H 2023. As they digest these reports, investors will contemplate the slowing economy, easing inflation pressures, the dollar’s retreat, the potential for real wage growth to emerge, and the return of student debt payments.


There will be a sharp increase with more than 300 companies issuing their quarterly results and their projections for the remainder of 2023. With the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite back in overbought levels, modest economic data ahead, and the Fed entering its pre-monetary policy meeting blackout period, the week’s focus will be corporate earnings. European markets are lower in midday trading and U.S. Hong Kong had a Market Holiday today and will resume trading tomorrow. Japan’s markets are closed today as the country celebrates “ Marine Day” which sees the country giving thanks for the ocean’s bounty and considering the importance of the ocean to Japan. Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 0.29%, and India’s SENSEX advanced 0.80% led by Financials and Energy. Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries closed close to flat, declining 0.07%, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.35% and China’s Shanghai Composite closed 0.87% lower.
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Asia-Pacific equity markets generally finished the day lower after China’s GDP update which came in at 6.3%, a full 1% lower than expectations.
